MARK TWAIN WROTE "IF VOTING MADE ANY DIFFERENCE, THEY WOULDN'T LET US DO IT". So, WHY DO WE HAVE POLLS, SURVEYS AND QUESTIONNAIRES?

 

 One of my favorite stories about polling comes from this 1948 election.

OOPSY!

Dewey Defeats Truman" was a famously incorrect banner headline on the front page of the first edition of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948. Incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman, who had been expected to lose to Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential race.


What a famous error. How could they have gotten it wrong?  If my memory serves me, and it may not, (but who cares,) it fits.

A telephone poll was done and the results showed a healthy margin for Dewey who was the republican candidate.  As often happens in research, an unaccounted for factor screws everything up. An unknown variable. Unforeseen, not well thought out or sometimes just dumb.  In this case it was economics. It usually is.

 What the pollsters did not take into account was who could afford to have telephones in 1948. It wasn't at all like today. Many people or households did not have their own phone. For real. Not even a landline. Wow. Therefore, the people who did have their own phones were rich folks. And in those days, unlike now, that meant republicans. (not all republicans are rich. Some are just poor people who don't know any better) Just my opinion.

In essence it would be like calling up every member of the KKK and asking if they would vote for Obama. Anyway.  Who started this; asking public opinion, surveying, and why?

 When you don't know the answer, you look it up on the internet. Or you can make up your own information because most people don't bother to fact check.

Ancient Surveys

(Hubpages)

The Babylonians were the first society known to have taken a population census, conducted around 3800 BC. Like most civilizations that would follow, the counts took note of citizens as well as livestock and other goods.

The word census comes from the Latin 'censere' or 'estimate'. The Ancient Roman census was the most accurate of all the ancient civilizations. Conducted for tax purposes, it is one of the factors in the long lived prosperity of the empire. By taking an accurate census, more citizens and lands could be taxed, providing wealth for expansion and trade. The Roman census was carried out every five years. 
The United States Census records from 1790 to 1940 are maintained by the National Archives and not the U.S. Census Bureau.   I suppose they don't care much about old data. I also put this in because it looks like the US started to take a census in 1790.

Opinion Polls

(Wiki)
The first known example of an opinion poll was a local straw poll conducted by The Aru Pennsylvanian in 1824, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169 in the contest for the United States Presidency. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the whole country, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually city-wide.

 

Feedback

 

(Dictionary.com)

 

1. Electronics. the process of returning part of the output of a circuit, system, or device to the input, either to oppose the input (negative feedback) or to aid the input (positive feedback) 

2.acoustic feedback. 

the furnishing of data concerning the operation or output of a machine to an automatic control device or to the machine itself, so that subsequent or ongoing operations of the machine can be altered or corrected.

3. A reaction or response to a particular process or activity:

He got very little feedback from his speech.

4. Evaluative information derived from such a reaction or response:

to study the feedback from an audience survey.

5.Psychology. knowledge of the results of any behavior, considered as influencing or modifying further performance.

Compare biofeedback.

6. Biology. a self-regulatory biological system, as in the synthesis of some hormones, in which the output or response affects the input, either positively or negatively.

 

 SO WHY AM I MENTIONING THIS?

Since the Babylonians, humans have been taking population censuses. Counting probably started for the same reason.  I want to know  "how much?" how many" and "how can I make it mine?"
 

 

WHAT ARE THE REASONS BEHIND POLLS SURVEY QUESIONNAIRES AND FEEDBACK?

Historically, if you read between the Babylonian lines, it's about wealth. In like, hmm, how many people do we have? Have many crops do they produce? How much meat do they get from their livestock? How much of it can we take for ourselves for providing,  providing, okay. They probably didn't provide their citizens with much. I doubt they had garbage removal days or police or schools. So, how about;  give us what we want or we take it all away and kill you?

I'm not sure how much things have actually changed since then. The Romans at least did provide services to their citizens and they used the money for taxes. Theoretically. What happened in actual practice I'm not going into. You know, like using taxes to pay armies to take over the world so they could get more wealth. I wonder if they reduced taxes after a big conquering? Okay. back to topic.

At some point in time, a brilliant manipulator figured out that they could use public opinion for  lots of other things. I'm skipping a lot of history which I'm sure you won't mind.

Still, the people with big money could find out what the people with less money wanted and figure out how to sell it to them and take their money by razzle dazzling them/us.

Advertising. Need I say more?

 feedback:

WHAT STARTED AS GRASS ROOTS AND WAS MEANT TO BE HELPFUL TO US REAL FOLKS.  (*another digression)

It wasn't easy  for me to find out about feedback on the internet. Probably because I don't know where to look. My first personal experience with it was on Ebay.

Brilliant. Rating your fellow Ebay buyers and sellers based on your own experience with them. As God said, "In the beginning" all was dark. (or something.)  Feedback was meant to give us honest opinions that would help us.

I still read feedback although it too has gotten a little corrupt. Flame wars come to mind. Fear became an issue. If I tell my truth and the person feels besmirched, I get reamed by them.  I no longer put quite as much stock into Ebay feedback as I do with Amazon and other commercial sites. Still, it is a very democratic idea. I don't like to buy anything on line without having some feedback.

BACK TO THE QUESTION

Back to the question at hand. Why do we ask other people's opinions?
For that, I think there are several answers.

1.Some of us don't value our own opinions or judgement, so we look to someone else to get an answer. Then, if we screw up, we don't have to take full responsibility.

2.Some, are truly curious to know what others think and like to use it to help themselves to get as much information as possible. (I like to think that's me)

3. Some, just want your money. This is true about lots of things.

4. If you're in research, it's a valuable tool to get information.

 

THEORY

We are ultimately social animals. We do not live in a vacuum. We need the feedback and opinion of others for survival.
Like all other aspects of homo sapiens, this has evolved into areas that our genetic selves don't need.  It is no longer about survival.

THE REAL REASON FOR THIS THEORY, TODAY,

I am curious to know what the people who are reading my posts think about them. Same for the photo album I posted.

I would like comments to know if there are things you would like to read a theory on.

I would like to know if you agree or disagree. (I get that a lot of my posts are personal and you can't really comment on those, unless you wanted to tell me that I used to be an idiot or harlot or something else).

I'd like other people's feedback. And so, that's what I wrote this. Just asking didn't help. 
 I think there is a place where you can just click and give positive feedback. You don't even have to post a comment.  If you like a post or a photo, that's all you've got to do. Otherwise I feel as though I'm living in a vacuum and I don't like the feeling.

Ultimately, I'm writing all of this for myself. I'll keep writing  until I don't want to. In the meantime, it might be nice to hear from people other than my good friend Len.

Even my husband seems to have stopped commenting. If that means he's stopped reading this, well, there are lots of stories I'd like to tell that he wouldn't be happy with.  I guess I'll find out now, won't I? Will you?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.